Synopsis: After a brief hiatus in monsoon activity, storm chances will return later today across southcentral AZ. Looking at the big picture, the summer ridge will settle into the Four Corners region today/tomorrow before continuing into the lower Great Plains. Moist southeasterly flow should allow for an uptick in storms later today including the lower deserts in and around the greater Phoenix Valley this evening/overnight. Strong wind gusts, blowing dust, and brief heavy downpours will be the main threats with any activity. Moving ahead, storm chances will trend down over the upcoming holiday weekend with drier conditions present.
For today plan on mostly sunny skies into the afternoon before increasing cloud cover/storm chances. Daytime temperatures will warm into the 107˚F-109˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will generally hover in the 5-15mph range with gusty and dusty afternoon/evening conditions expected. Storms should initiate early this afternoon south/east of the County with activity trying to move into the lower deserts this evening with the help of outflow boundaries. In general, we expect any areas that see storm activity could pick up anywhere from 0.10”-0.30” of rain. Of course, localized areas could see upwards of 0.50”-1.00” along with minor flash flood potential with any stronger/severe storms. Conditions will be monitored the rest of the day and updates/statements will be issued as needed.
For tomorrow plan on another muggy start to the day along with possible lingering debris clouds. Afternoon highs will climb into the 103˚F-105˚F range around the Valley. Storm chances will continue with the focus across our northern and eastern higher terrain zones. Lower desert activity will need help from outflow boundary interactions. Heading into Friday plan on downtrend in storms, plenty of sun, and highs around the 105˚F mark.