Yesterday’s forecast remains on track for today and through the end of the work week with a low grade Monsoon pattern in place. Looking at the big picture, the Monsoon ridge will transition east the next few days in NM promoting E/NE steering flow across much of AZ. As has been the case, plenty of moisture resides across the state, but limiting factors (Capped environment, lack of outflows, etc) has greatly limited storm development across the lower deserts. We anticipate that trend to continue today with activity instead focused to the north and south of the County. It’s possible we may have a better shot for Valley storms tomorrow and/or Friday before a general warming and drying trend through the weekend.
For today plan on mostly sunny skies across the region as temperatures climb into the 103˚F-105˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will hover in the 5-10mph range with localized afternoon/evening gusts around 15-20mph. There’s plenty of moisture and instability for storms, however we’re going to need a strong lifting mechanism to break the cap and odds don’t favor this happening. Similar to the last few days, planning on a quiet evening with slight chances for overnight storms around the peripheries of the County.
For tomorrow plan on another sunny start to the day along with continuing muggy conditions. Daytime highs will warm into the 105˚F-107˚F range around the Valley. A similar storm setup will continue again tomorrow, though guidance is showing greater activity across the higher terrain areas to our east. This could aid in seeing some lower desert storms tomorrow evening in and around the Valley. As highlighted above, a low grade Monsoon pattern will continue through the end of the work week before a steady warming trend into this weekend.