Weather Outlook

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Date & Time: 08/16/2022 @ 9:45 AM MST

Forecaster: Henz, D.
Yesterday’s forecast remains on track for today with hotter temperatures and a lower grade storm setup across southcentral AZ. Looking at the big picture, we’re in a bit of a transition period with the monsoon ridge currently bifurcated: one center over the Great Basin and the other over OK/TX. Weak southerly flow exists over AZ as a remnant inverted trough lifts north out of the state and another larger easterly wave is spinning in far west Texas (more on this below). Overall, were expecting modest storm chances later today with the focus across higher terrain areas around the County. Looking ahead, the setup is looking increasing favorable for another burst period of storm activity as the week progresses along with the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. 

For today plan on mostly sunny skies across the region. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 103˚F-105˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will generally hover in the 5-10mph range with localized gusty/dusty conditions possible this evening from any outflow boundaries. Storms are expected to develop across higher terrain areas later this afternoon. Some of this activity will try and move into portions of the lower deserts this evening, but will need the help of outflow boundaries. Any stronger storms that form will be capable of brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Conditions will be monitored closely later today.

For tomorrow plan on plenty of sun to go along with another warm afternoon. Daytime highs will again reach into the 103˚F-106˚F range around the Valley. Light and variable winds will likely give way to gustier evening conditions. Storms are expected to initiate across the higher terrain areas north/east of the Valley and then move southwest into portions of the lower deserts into the evening hours. Heading into Thursday and Friday, the easterly wave mentioned above is forecast to move into the NM/AZ/Mexico region bringing deeper moisture and adding extra forcing for storm development across the southern half of AZ. Furthermore, guidance is showing a west coast trough pattern setting up for the upcoming weekend. Given the moisture in place and various forcing mechanisms, we’re likely to see several higher impact heavy rain/flooding days before the end of the week. We’ll have additional details on this in the coming days.

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