Synopsis: We’ve got one more day with mainly quiet weather conditions before a well-needed uptick in storm activity to start off the new week. Looking at the big picture, the Monsoon ridge will build north towards the Four Corners region Monday and Tuesday. Resulting steering flow will become E/SE allowing deeper moisture to move into the state. Storm chances will remain confined to southern AZ today before expanding in coverage late Monday and likely peaking on Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds and blowing dust will also be of concern across the lower deserts with this setup. We’ll have more details on this and potential rain chances in tomorrow’s outlook.
For today plan on mainly sunny skies across the region with distant evening storms well to our south. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 107˚F-109˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will generally hover in the 5-10mph range with localized greater gusts into this evening. Overnight lows will only dip into the upper 80s around the urban corridor under partly cloudy skies and muggy conditions.
For tomorrow plan on morning debris clouds left over from overnight convection across northern Mexico. Muggy conditions will persist with daytime highs warming into the 106˚F-108˚F range around the Valley under partly/mostly sunny skies. Storms will initiate across the higher terrain areas before moving W/NW towards the lower deserts into the evening hours. Gusty outflows and blowing dust will be the main concern with perhaps some spotty rain if we see a few lower deserts storms. Heading into Tuesday, plan highs around 107˚F under partly/mostly sunny skies. Guidance is pointing towards greater storm/rain chances with plenty of moisture and favorable steering flow in place.