Synopsis: The forecast remains on track for today with sunny skies and quiet conditions through the late afternoon with an outside shot at a few t-storms across our eastern zones tonight. There’s been little change in the upper level pattern with the monsoon ridge to our east and a weak trough along the CA coast. Guidance continues to show a weak perturbation/moisture surge trying to lift north out southern AZ this evening which again could allow for mother nature to put on a few fireworks of her own. Overall, this isn’t likely to affect the bulk of 4th of July festivities. Moving ahead, drier air will filter in from the west through most of the upcoming work week shutting off any chances for storms across the lower deserts. We’re also likely to see a steady warming trend after mid-week.
For the rest of the day plan on lingering mid clouds to burn off with mostly sunny skies through the afternoon hours. Daytime temperatures step back a few degrees into the 102˚F-105˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will generally hover in the 5-10mph range possible gustier/dustier conditions this evening/tonight if we get any outflow boundaries. with localized greater gusts around 15-20mph this evening. Isolated storms are expected to initiate across southern AZ this afternoon. Some of this activity may try and move north into the County after 6pm. We’ll need a moisture surge and outflow boundary help in order to see a few storms across the lower deserts. Otherwise, activity should remain across the higher terrain areas. We’ll check back in this afternoon/evening an provide updates if needed.