Weather Outlook

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Date & Time: 08/22/2017 10:45 AM MST

Forecaster: Henz, D.

Synopsis:

Yesterday’s forecast remains on track for today with drier conditions and quiet weather on tap. Changes arrive Wednesday though as a cutoff disturbance to our west will move inland and across AZ into Thursday. Meanwhile, a weakened Monsoon ridge will remain in place to our southeast across southern NM. Resulting south/southerly steering flow should help bring deeper moisture into the region and combined with forcing from the disturbance allow for t-storm activity to return across the southern half of AZ Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon. Looking ahead, guidance shows high pressure and dry conditions redeveloping over the region into the Weekend.

For today plan on clear and sunny skies as afternoon temperatures warm into the 103˚F-106˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will generally remain in the 3-8mph range with localized evening gusts around 10-15mph. Any storm activity later today will be limited to the higher terrain of far eastern AZ. Overnight lows will dip into the low 80s under clear skies and light winds.

For tomorrow plan on mainly sunny skies early on before increasing clouds and t-storm chances into the afternoon/evening. Daytime highs will climb into the 102˚F-104˚F range around the Valley. Light and variable winds early on may give way to gustier conditions into the evening from passing outflow boundaries. Expecting activity to initiate across southern AZ into the afternoon with storms trying to move north/northwest into portions of the County into the evening. Stronger storms will be capable of brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds (possible blowing dust). Heading into Thursday, plan on temperatures remaining in the low 100s with slight chances for storms into the afternoon. Conditions will then dry out heading into Friday and the upcoming weekend.

Summer Heat Products

Forecast Today Tomorrow Day 3
Heat Risk Low Low Low
Air Quality (O3) Moderate Moderate Moderate

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